World Championships Cheat Sheet
World Champs Cheat Sheet
Our preview of the distance races
By Mario Fraioli
As featured in the Web Only issue of Running Times Magazine
http://runningtimes.com/Article.aspx?ArticleID=17263
The 12th edition of the IAAF World Championships in Athletics gets underway August 15th in Berlin, Germany, and as always, the distance events promise to pack a powerful punch. Without further ado, here’s an event-by-event rundown from the 800 meters to the marathon.
Women’s 800 Meters
Heats: Sunday, August 16
Semifinals: Monday, August 17
Final: Wednesday, August 19
In the world of women’s 800m running, 18 years old is considered plenty old enough to play with the big girls.
At last summer’s Olympic Games, 18-year-old Kenyan Pamela Jelimo captured gold in the event, and the youth movement has continued into this summer as Caster Semenya of South Africa finds herself atop the world list with the world’s only sub-1:57 clocking, a 1:56.72 victory at the African Youth Championships. Jelimo has a best of only 1:59.49 this season and has not been on top of her game since wowing the world last summer in Beijing. Semenya is considered to be something of a wildcard at these world championships, as the South African sensation is still a rookie on the world level. Anything is possible, however, as there is no clear-cut favorite to take top honors.
Not many people on the world stage knew the name Maggie Vessey before this summer, but the upstart American has dropped 5 seconds – yes, 5! – off her previous personal best of 2:02.01 with a 1:57.84 then world-leader in Monaco. Vessey, who finished fourth in Eugene without a world qualifier, has been the surprise of the summer and could contend for a medal if the she can keep her momentum going.
Other women to watch include Russian Mariya Savinova, whose only loss of the season was a second-place finish to Vessey in Monaco. Defending world champion, Janeth Jepkosgei of Kenya, will looking to repeat, but will have her hands full in this wide-open race for gold.
We say: Jelimo goes wire-to-wire to win her second-straight major championship. Savinova struggles home in second, but holds off teammates Svetlana Klyuka and Elena Kofonova in the homestretch. Vessey falters in the heats and fails to advance to the final.
Women’s 1500 Meters
Heats: Tuesday, August 18
Semifinal: Friday, August 21
Final: Sunday, August 23
They’re not among the clear-cut favorites, but there are three Americans worth keeping a close eye on in the women’s metric mile.
U.S. champion Shannon Rowbury, seventh in this event at last summer’s Olympics, leads the American charge, which also includes Christin Wurth-Thomas and Anna Willard, both of whom are having sensational summers on the outdoor oval.
Wurth-Thomas, whose bold mid-race move in Eugene wasn’t enough to rattle Rowbury, has been having the season of her life this summer, finishing second behind defending world champion and pre-race favorite, Maryam Jamal of Bahrain, in Rome, securing her first sub-4 clocking with a 3:59.93 finish. Rowbury, who posted a season’s best of 4:03.92 at the Prefontaine meet, has raced to two second-place finishes in Europe this summer, clocking a 4:08.21 and 4:05.47 at London and Rome, respectively. Willard, third in the 1,500 and runner-up in the steeplechase at the U.S. championships, has a 4:01.44 clocking to her credit this season, set at the Prefontaine Classic in June. No American woman has medaled in the 1500m at the world championships since Regina Jacobs snagged silver in Seville in 1999. Jacobs was later convicted of a doping violation.
Americans aside, Jamal is the one runner everyone will be keeping a close eye on in Berlin. The Bahraini is on top of the world this season with a 3:56.55 runaway win in Rome. She’ll be shadowed by Ethiopian Gelete Burka, who handed Jamal her only loss this season at Lausanne in July. Burka has a 3:58.79 to her credit and has shown she has what it takes to win on the world level.
We say: Jamal jumps the field and wins in meet record time. Burka is a non-factor and fades in the final, while Russian Anna Alminova snags second and Wurth-Thomas bags a bronze medal for the U.S.
Women’s Steeplechase
Heats: Saturday, August 15
Final: Monday, August 17
American ace Jenny Barringer has not lost a steeplechase this season, but unfortunately for her and the rest of the field, neither has Russian rocket Gulnara Galkina.
Galkina, the Olympic gold medalist and world-record holder in the event, is the heavy favorite despite being stuck in second on this season’s world list behind Spaniard Marta Dominguez, whose 9:09.39 clocking in Barcelona at the end of July is the only mark better than Gulkina’s 9:11.58. Dominguez DNF’d at last summer’s Olympics and will be looking to redeem herself and win a world championship for the first time in her storied career.
The strong field in this event features six women who have broken 9:20 in 2009, including Gulkina’s countrywomen, Yekaterina Volkova and Yuliya Zarudneva, who have personal bests of 9:06.57 and 9:13.18, respectively. Volkova is the defending world champion, and the 23-year-old Zarudneva, a relative newcomer to the event, is the reigning Russian champion whose growing confidence more than makes up for what she lacks in event experience.
Barringer, the NCAA and U.S. champion, has a season-best of 9:25.54 and holds the American record of 9:22.26, set while placing ninth at last summer’s Olympics. Her 3:59.90 clocking in the 1500m at the Prefontaine Classic in June gives her some of the fastest credentials in the field, but this won’t mean much if that speed doesn’t translate over the barriers.
We say: Gulkina finally gets gold at the World Championships, while countrywoman Volkova takes third. Dominguez splits the Russsian 1-2 punch, as the Spaniard settles for silver.
Women’s 5,000 Meters
Heats: Wednesday, August 19
Final: Saturday, August 22
Nothing in this world is for certain, but in Berlin there’s a very good chance that an Ethiopian will win the women’s 5,000m.
Defending champion Meseret Defar of Ethiopia will be looking to triumph again over 12.5 laps of the track, but countrywoman Tirunesh Dibaba, the 5000m gold medalist at the Beijing Olympics and world-leader in the event this season with a 14:33.65 clocking in London in June, has to be considered the odds-on favorite to take home the world title (if she actually takes to the track). This dynamic duo won’t have to contend with the third part of their country’s terrific trio, Meselech Melkamu, who holds the world’s best in the 10,000m this season and has run 14:34.17 for 5,000m, but will reportedly only contest the longer race in Berlin.
Kenyans Vivian Cheruiyot and Sylvia Jebiwott Kibet, who have run 14:37.01 and 14:37.77, respectively, this season, could challenge Dibaba and Defar for the win, but at the very least should snag one of the last two spots on the podium, completing an African sweep.
Jen Rhines, a three-time Olympian for the U.S., will lead the American charge in this event and will be joined by Julie Culley, who will be running in her first world track championship. Rhines, who has broken 15:00 the last three years, has a season-best of 15:07.78, set in Stockholm at the end of July.
We say: Dibaba and Defar use team tactics to go 1-2 and stay a few steps ahead of a hard-charging Cheruiyot.
Women’s 10,000 Meters
Final: Saturday, August 15
The question here is if anyone can dethrone two-time defending world champion and Olympic gold medalist Tirunesh Dibaba of Ethiopia. The short answer is no.
Dibaba, the two-time defending world champion and Olympic gold medalist in this event at Beijing, has shown she is practically unbeatable over 25 laps when a major championship is at stake. Although she’s yet to race a 10,000m on the track this summer, Dibaba’s 14:33.65 in London is the fastest time in the world this year over 5,000m, an event she will also contest at this year’s championships. Meseret Defar, Dibaba’s teammate and the reigning 5,000m world champion, will also be attempting the distance double in Berlin. (In fact, she has mentioned trying for two world records.) Her 29:59.20 clocking in Birmingham in June is the second fastest time in the world this year behind teammate Meselech Melkamu, whose 29:53.80 at Utrecht in June puts her well atop the world list. Unlike Dibaba and Defar, Melkamu will be focusing solely on the 10,000m in Berlin, and poses perhaps the biggest threat to stopping Dibaba’s 10K three-peat.
Olympic bronze medalist Shalane Flanagan will be looking to make it three major championships in a row where an American woman has medaled in the 10,000m, but the Marblehead, Mass. native hasn’t raced since finishing second to Amy Yoder Begley at the U.S. championships back in June. Flanagan has reportedly ironed out her iron issues, but race rust and three untouchable Ethiopians will likely keep her off the medal stand.
We say: Dibaba does it again, Melkamu finishes second and Defar takes third as Ethiopia rolls over everyone. Again.
Women’s Marathon
Final: Sunday, August 23
The big news out of Berlin is who isn’t in the race. Hometown heroine and pre-race favorite Irina Mikitenko of Germany pulled out of the event earlier this month following the passing of her father. Mikitenko, who posted a world-leading time of 2:22:11 earlier this year at the London Marathon, is the second major name to pull out of the World Championships, as Mara Yamauchi of Great Britain, second to Mikitenko in 2:23:12 at London this past April, withdrew earlier this summer after reports of a foot injury.
The absence of the two top-ranked women in the world from this year’s championships leaves the door wide open for any of a number of women to burst through and take home the coveted crown of world champion. Ethiopia sends a trio of women who have run under 2:25 within the last two years, including Dire Tune, the 2008 Boston Marathon champion who finished second at this year’s race. Teammates Bezunesh Bekele and Atsede Bayisa join Tune as legitimate contenders for the individual title, although interestingly enough no Ethiopian woman has ever medaled in the marathon at the world championships.
Other women to watch include American Kara Goucher, running in just her third marathon, who finished third at New York in her debut last fall and followed that up with a third-place finish at Boston in April. Goucher, who won bronze in the 10,000m in Osaka in 2007, recently ran 1:08:05 to win the Rock-n-Roll Half Marathon in Chicago and should be considered among the favorites. Paula Radcliffe, the world-record holder and 2008 NYC Marathon champion from Great Britain, is on the provisional start list, but it is uncertain whether she will be on the starting line in Berlin. Radcliffe will run the NYC Half Marathon on Sunday and decide after that if she’s good to go for twice the distance. Japan’s Yoko Shibui, who posted the third fastest time in the world this year with a 2:23:42 win at the Osaka Marathon in January, also won the San Francisco Marathon at the end of July, and will be in the mix for top individual honors while leading a strong Japanese squad in Berlin.
We say: Tune takes the win, Shibui snags second and Goucher holds on for her third straight 3rd-place marathon finish, becoming the first American woman to medal at the World Championships since Marianne Dickerson took silver at Helsinki in 1983.
Men’s 800 Meters
Heats: Thursday, August 20
Semifinals: Friday, August 21
Finals: Sunday, August 23
Russian 800-meter ace Yuriy Borzakovskiy might not be considered the favorite to take top honors in the final two-lap tour of the track in Berlin, but when it comes to big race experience and execution, there aren’t many better than Borzakovskiy.
Burzakovskiy, the 2004 Olympic gold medalist, has run 1:43.58 so far this season, winning four races and finishing no worse than third in his three losses. His path to the medal stand will be anything but clear, however, as ten athletes have posted times under 1:44 so far this season.
Leading the charge is Sudanese sensation Abubaker Kaki, the 20-year-old world indoor champion who has run a world-leading 1:43.09 this season. Kaki, who failed to make the final in Beijing last summer, will be looking for redemption in Berlin, along with his first outdoor world championship.
Among his biggest concerns will be Kenyan Alfred Yego, the defending world champion and bronze medalist at last summer’s Olympics, who has run only 1:45.23 this season but prides himself on peaking when medals are at stake. Teammate Asbel Kiprop, who will attempt the 800/1500 double, has the second fastest two-lap time in the world this year and would love to win double gold in the mid-distance races.
American Nick Symmonds, the U.S. champion, slipped under 1:44 for the first time in his career with a 1:43.83 clocking in Monaco at the end of July and will be looking to improve upon his fifth-place semifinal finish at last summer’s Olympic Games.
We say: Kaki can’t lose, Yego gets left out of the final, Kiprop settles for second and Burzakovskiy goes home from Berlin with a bronze medal.
Men’s 1,500 Meters
Heats: Saturday, August 15
Semifinals: Monday, August 17
Finals: Wednesday, August 18
He hasn’t lost a 1500m or mile race all season, but American Bernard Lagat will more than have his hands full when the event gets underway in Berlin.
Lagat, with a season-best 3:32.56 clocking at the Tangiers meet, is the reigning world champion and will be attempting a second-straight 1500/5,000 double at the championships. His biggest competition will likely come from his former countryman, Kenyan Asbel Kiprop, the silver medalist in Beijing last summer who is also undefeated in the mile or its metric equivalent so far this season.
Kiprop, for all his impressive victories this season, however, does not find himself atop the world list in his signature event; in fact, he’s not even among the top three. Teammates Augustine Kiprono Choge and Haron Keitany have run 3:29.47 and 3:30.20, respectively, and Frenchman Mehdi Baala sits third on the list with a 3:30.96 clocking in Monaco. Baala, it should be noted, won the Monaco meeting, which featured the deepest 1500m finish so far this season, with the first five finishers all going sub-3:32.
Tenth in this event at last summer’s Olympics, Choge is worth watching out for if he can find his way into the final. The young gun from Kipsigak, Kenya has chopped more than 2 seconds off his personal best this season and owns the only sub-3:30 clocking among the field. He also has a 1:44.86 800m clocking under his belt from the Ostrava meet earlier this season and will pose a problem for anyone attempting to outkick him off a strategically slow pace.
We say: Lagat languishes much like he did in Beijing last summer and Choge takes home his first major world title by outleaning Kiprop at the line. Baala singlehandedly stops a Kenyan sweep and leaves Berlin with bronze medal.
Men’s Steeplechase
Heats: Sunday, August 16
Final: Tuesday, August 18
Everyone always seems to forget about the steeplechase at a major track championship. In Berlin, one, two or as many as four Kenyans are hoping to make the event one that people will remember for years to come.
Defending world and Olympic champion Brimin Kipruto is looking to continue his reign as the world’s best over the barriers, however, teammate Ezekiel Kemboi, the 2004 Olympic gold medalist and the owner of the only sub-8:00 clocking so far this season, is a major threat to dethrone his countryman. Paul Koech and Richard Matelong will join Kipruto and Kemboi to round out the Kenyan contingent, and with three of the four fastest times heading into the event, a Kenyan sweep of the top three spots could very well be a reality in about eight minutes’ time.
Other athletes to keep an eye on are France’s Bouabdellah Tahri, whose 8:02.19 clocking earlier this season puts him in a possible position to medal. Teammate Mahiedine Mekhissi-Benabbad, who scored a silver medal in Beijing last summer, has run 8:06.48 this season and beat Ezekiel Kemboi at the Paris Golden League meet earlier this summer. European title holder Jukka Keskisalo from FInland was right behind Kemboi in that race.
We say: Kemboi crushes the field, Kipruto settles for second and Tahri takes third in an event no one will talk much about afterward.
Men’s 5,000 Meters
Heats: Thursday, August 20
Final: Sunday, August 23
Bernard Lagat would like to repeat as world champion. Kenenisa Bekele would like to win the one world championship that has eluded him over the course of his illustrious career.
Lagat, who received an automatic bid to Berlin by way of his win in Osaka in 2007, is looking for redemption on the world level after a disappointing Olympics last summer in Beijing. The American has been on his game so far this season, posting five wins in the 1500 meters or mile, but was blitzed by Bekele in their only meeting so far this season, a 3,000 showdown in Paris that saw the Ethiopian finish almost 5 seconds ahead of the second-place Lagat.
The biggest wildcard here is whether Bekele will contest the 5,000m at the world championships. The world-record holder in both the 5,000m and 10,000m is rumored to be leaning toward contesting only the longer event in Berlin. If he is a no-go, any of his own Ethiopian teammates or rival Kenyans should be considered among the top contenders for a medal. Kenyan Eliud Kipchoge, silver medalist in this event both at last summer’s Olympics and 2007 World Championships in Osaka, will lead teammates Vincent Chepkok and Joseph Ebuya into battle in Berlin.
The Oregon invasion of Berlin will be led by Matt Tegenkamp, the U.S. champion who finished a surprising fourth at Osaka in 2007. The former Wisconsin star ran a season-best 13:07.97 to finish second in Belgium in mid-July, and has shown that he has the finishing speed to close with the best in the world. Tegenkamp will be joined by Oregon Project teammates Chris Solinsky and Evan Jager.
We say: Bekele decides to do the double, and wins a close one as only history’s best distance runner can. Lagat is a non-factor in the final, while teammate Tegenkamp comes up just short of the medal stand once again. Ugandan Moses Kipsiro sneaks in for second and Kipchoge secures a spot for Kenya on the medal stand with a third-place finish.
Men’s 10,000 Meters
Final: Monday, August 17
There’s no reason to believe that anyone but Kenenisa Bekele will win the men’s 10,000m at these world championships, as the unbeatable Ethiopian has never lost a 25-lap track race over the course of his incredible career.
The world-record holder and reigning world and Olympic champion will be contesting his first 10,000m of the season, but with a 12:56 5,000m win at Rome under his belt, race rust will hardly be an issue. Bekele’s bridesmaid, teammate Sileshi Sihine, could pose a potential problem for his countryman, but that’s not likely. Imane Merga and Gebre-gziabher Gebremariam round out the rest of the Ethiopian army, whose main aim at these world championships will be to keep a Kenyan off the podium, something that hasn’t been done since Ethiopia swept the top three spots in Paris in 2003.
Kenya will counter the Ethiopian attack with Micah Kogo, a world-record road warrior and the bronze medalist in this event in Beijing. His support crew will consist of Moses Masai, fourth in the 10,000 in Beijing, and Bernard Kipyego, a relative rookie on the world scene.
Oregonians Galen Rupp, Dathan Ritzenhein and Tim Nelson will represent the United States in this event, but with personal bests all almost 30 seconds off Bekele’s slowest winning time in a major championship, none are expected to be in serious contention for a medal. Rupp finished 13th at last summer’s Olympic Games, while Ritzenhein took ninth in this event at Osaka in 2007. A top-ten finish by any of these three athletes in Berlin would be terrific.
We say: Bekele bests the field, again, and teammates Sihine and Gebremarian take second and third as Ethiopia does what it last did in 2003, sweeping the top three sports and keeping their Kenyan counterparts out of contention for a medal.
Men’s Marathon
Final: Saturday, August 22
As in most major marathons, this race will resemble a dual meet between East African powerhouses Kenya and Ethiopia when 101 athletes representing 39 countries toe the line on the final Saturday in Berlin. It will be a Northern African, however, who athletes from these two countries will be keeping their closest eye on.
Two-time world champion and the third-fastest man in the field, Moroccan Jaouad Gharib, is considered a strong pre-race favorite after a 2:05:27 clocking in London earlier this year. Gharib has shown that he not only still has the wheels to win, but also possesses the experience to do it on the world level.
Gharib’s stiffest competition will come from athletes representing the two aforementioned countries, as Boston Marathon champion and fourth-place finisher at last summer’s Olympics, Deriba Merga of Ethiopia, will be looking to cap off his killer 2009 campaign with a world championship. Merga’s teammate, Tsegaye Kebede, got Gharib in London with a 2:05:20 second-place finish to Olympic gold medalist, Sammy Wanjiru, who elected not to run the marathon in Berlin.
Kenya will counter with the amazing Abel Kirui, third at Rotterdam this year in 2:05:04, along with wily old warrior Robert Cheruiyot, the four-time Boston champion, as well as Daniel Rono and Emmanuel Mutai, both 2:06 guys. Other notable names in the race include Moroccans Abderrahim Goumri, who has a 2:05:30 to his credit, and 2:06:48 man Rachid Kisri.
No American is expected to contend for a medal at this year’s world championships, as Dathan Ritzenhein, ninth at last summer’s Olympics, has taken his show back to the track this summer. Ryan Hall, 10th in Beijing and third at Boston in April, is prepping for the New York City Marathon in November. The U.S. squad will be led by 2004 Olympian Dan Browne, who has bounced back beautifully after a tough year in 2008. He will be joined by Ed Torres and Justin Young, both of Colorado, along with Minnesotan Matt Gabrielson and Massachusetts native Nate Jenkins.
We say: Merga doesn’t make the same mistake he made in Beijing last summer and goes home with gold for the first time at a major championship. Kenyan Kirui takes silver and Gharib runs strong for bronze in perhaps his final world championship race.